ASX Weekly Roundup — 02 Mar to 06 Mar 2026

A Week of Two Halves: Profitability and Peril on the ASX

This week proved to be a study in contrasts for ASX investors, particularly those keeping a close eye on shorting activity. While robust results and major resource upgrades sparked optimism, regulatory suspensions and a court-ordered winding up served as stark reminders of the inherent risks in equity markets. The market narrative fractured, with bullish sentiment battling against a backdrop of compliance failures and looming insolvency – an uneven playing field for both bulls and bears.

Bullish Signals

ASX:360 — Life360 Inc. CDI 3:1 FOR. EXEMPT

Life360’s Q4 and full-year results delivered a resounding endorsement of their freemium strategy, sending ripples of positivity through the market. The company posted a staggering 32% year-on-year revenue growth, reaching $489.5 million, surpassing guidance and demonstrating impressive operational momentum. Achieving first-year profitability with a net income of $150.8 million (though tempered by a one-off tax benefit) and an adjusted EBITDA surge of 105% to $93.2 million, with margins expanding to a healthy 19%, solidifies their progress towards sustainable earnings. The substantial cash balance of $495.8 million further bolsters their financial flexibility and allows for strategic acquisitions like Fantix and Nativo, aimed at building a multi-engine platform.

For short sellers who've been betting against Life360, this announcement is a painful reminder of the dangers of underestimating management's execution. The short interest currently sits at 1.01%, a relatively modest position, but the strong performance may trigger some covering activity – and potentially a squeeze if momentum continues. Shorts likely piled on during periods of slower growth previously, so this strong report provides a clear opportunity to exit short positions at a loss. The company's pivot to an AI-first model and aggressive growth targets (surpassing 150 million MAU and $1 billion in revenue) are ambitious, but the current trajectory suggests Life360 is well-positioned to deliver. The reliance on non-cash tax benefits warrants caution, but the core business is undeniably demonstrating strength. View 360 on ASX Short →

ASX:CRD — Conrad Asia Energy Ltd CDI 1:1

Conrad Asia's announcement of FID approval for the Mako Gas Project is a significant win, especially for investors who have weathered years of exploration uncertainty. The project, targeting first gas in Q4 2027 with a total Capex of US$320 million (WNEL’s 25% share at $80m), represents a concrete move towards production and revenue generation. Securing long-term gas sales to 2037 covering their entire 2C contingent resources is a crucial de-risking factor, guaranteeing demand and providing revenue visibility.

Short sellers who’ve been eyeing CRD will need to reassess their positions. While the $80 million investment represents a manageable exposure for WNEL, the reliance on Nations Petroleum Natuna Barat (NNB) to fund 75% of development costs and carry their portion creates a layer of counterparty risk. The footnote disclosing that the Capex excludes MOPU downpayments introduces potential cost overruns, which could trigger short selling activity again. Currently, short interest is minimal at 0.05%, suggesting a lack of strong bearish conviction prior to this announcement, but the long-term funding agreement and potential cost escalation remain key points of scrutiny. View CRD on ASX Short →

ASX:SGQ — St George Mining Ltd Ordinary

St George Mining’s major resource upgrade for the Araxa Project in Brazil is a true game-changer. The 75% increase to 70.91 million tonnes averaging 4.06% TREO, with a substantial portion within the top 120m weathered profile, positions Araxa as a serious contender in the global rare earths market. The significant increase in the Measured & Indicated category to 29.49Mt is particularly encouraging, providing a solid foundation for feasibility studies and attracting serious investor interest. The presence of significant niobium resources adds an extra layer of potential revenue diversification, widening the project's appeal.

The current short interest in SGQ is slightly elevated at 0.17%, potentially reflecting some skepticism about the project's development prospects or concerns over Brazilian regulatory environment. However, this resource upgrade provides a compelling argument for short covering and potentially attracts new buyers eager to capitalize on the project’s potential. The exclusion of 41.42Mt currently in the Inferred category and East Araxá discovery remains a key risk factor, but management’s proactive exploration plan indicates a commitment to unlocking further value. View SGQ on ASX Short →

Bearish Signals

ASX:ATM — Aneka Tambang (Persero) Tbk (PT)

The immediate suspension of trading for Anek Tambang, along with seven other entities, is a deeply concerning signal. The ASX's action stemming from failure to lodge periodic reports highlights fundamental governance weaknesses and raises serious questions about the company's operational management. The fact that this suspension is tied to a failure of continuous disclosure obligations speaks volumes about the potential for financial mismanagement and lack of investor protection.

For short sellers, this news is a confirmation bias moment – vindication for those who suspected underlying issues within the company. While not directly related to ATM’s core operations, the inability to adhere to basic reporting requirements significantly increases the perceived risk profile. Short interest currently sits at a notable 4.86%, indicating considerable bearish sentiment already existed, and this suspension will likely solidify those positions. The outlook is bleak as ATM faces a challenging path to reinstatement, requiring prompt and comprehensive compliance measures. View ATM on ASX Short →

ASX:OLH — Oldfields Holdings Limited

The Federal Court’s order to wind up Oldfields Holdings is a definitive and brutal outcome. The appointment of a liquidator, trading suspension, and fixed plaintiff costs represent the final chapter for this company. The announcement leaves no room for ambiguity—shareholders face a complete loss, and the stock’s value has effectively evaporated.

Short sellers who were positioned against OLH will likely be celebrating a successful bet, although the share price has already plummeted well before this announcement. The current short interest is not readily available, but it’s safe to assume a significant proportion of investors were betting against the company's survival. The liquidation process will be lengthy and complex, with little prospect of returns for existing shareholders. View OLH on ASX Short →

ASX:PLG — Pearl Gull Iron Limited

Pearl Gull Iron’s suspension from quotation due to insufficient operations is a further disappointment for investors. The ASX's determination that PLG fails to meet Listing Rule 12.1, despite a six-month review period, indicates persistent challenges in achieving sustainable profitability. This announcement highlights the difficulties facing companies struggling to transition from exploration to production and underscores the importance of a viable business model.

Short sellers have likely been circling PLG for some time, and this suspension provides further validation of their bearish thesis. Currently, short interest is low at 0.01%, which may indicate a lack of conviction or slow-moving shorts, but the ASX’s action is sure to embolden them. The outlook remains highly uncertain as PLG attempts to regain compliance, and the company's ability to demonstrate a credible operational turnaround will be critical for its survival. View PLG on ASX Short →

The Week Ahead

Next week, the market will be keenly watching for any updates from the suspended companies – particularly whether they can meet the deadlines to lodge their reports. Beyond that, investors should keep an eye on inflation data releases and any potential shifts in monetary policy from the Reserve Bank of Australia, which could significantly impact market sentiment. Corporate earnings season continues, with key retail and consumer discretionary companies reporting—expect increased volatility as results diverge from expectations.

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